What's in store today...

Thursday will see the Office of National Statistics retail sales figures released. On the corporate front, Carnival (CCL) will release its full-year results.

Recent news: Carnival's third-quarter earnings per share of $1.53 (95p) was 6% ahead of the mid-point of its June guidance and 7% ahead of consensus expectations. Net ticket revenue declined 7.3% but net on-board revenue yields increased 2.7%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel declined 3% and fuel costs decreased almost 4%.

The dividend was maintained at $0.25 and the group repurchased two million shares at a cost of $67 million.

Analysts' expectations: Panmure Gordon analysts comment: "Our 2012 earnings per share forecast of $1.87 is in line with consensus expectations and compares to the company guidance mid-point of $1.85. Our 2013 earnings per share forecast of $1.97 is 19% below consensus estimates of $2.44.

"With the 'fiscal cliff' looming in its hitherto resilient home US market, signs of other economies slowing rapidly and the impact of Costa Concordia on the new to cruise market more significant than management expected, we think the increase in net revenue yield in 2013 will be just 2%."

Valuation: The stock trades on a 2013 P/E ratio of 16.4 times consensus earnings, or 19.9 times on Panmure Gordon's below-consensus forecast.

Economic news

The British Retail Consortium's (BRC) retail sales monitor showed sales recovering in November, with like-for-like sales values standing 0.4% up on the year after falling 0.1% in October, albeit with November's report potentially flattered by the late half-term school holiday. What will data for the same period from the Office of National statistics show?

"It is possible that the better November BRC report was boosted by a rebound in consumer confidence, with some proceeds of that flowing through to the high street helping to get the pre-Christmas spending spree started," comments Clarke at Investec.

"We expect to see these same drivers carry through to the Office of National Statistics measure of sales volumes for November, with volumes perhaps also getting a lift from pre-Christmas discounting through the month as consumers, according to the BRC, sought out lower price gifts.

"As such, we expect to see headline sales volumes stand 0.3% up on the month, after October's 0.8% drop, leaving volumes 1.4% up on the year."

Thursday 20 DecemberTrading statements

Serco Group.

AGM/EGM

Mothercare, SimiGon, Air China, Hellenic Telecom Industries, Akers Biosciences, Gemfields.

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